Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

Racing Ferrol–Sporting Gijon

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 May 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'Sporting GijonN. Serrano (assist: Pablo García)
90'Sporting GijonCésar Gelabert (assist: G. Campos)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Sporting Gijon
9	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	4
5	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
442	Passes	317
379	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 1.08 · Sporting Gijon 1.19. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Racing Ferrol 9 · Sporting Gijon 12; on target 4 and 7.
Racing Ferrol kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

José Sánchez→

4.78

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “Racing Ferrol to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Racing Ferrol, 1.38 for Sporting Gijon.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,376 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win32.6%

Draw28.2%

Sporting Gijon to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time18.0%

Level at half-time48.3%

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Sporting Gijon ahead82.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1376 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 10Actual: 12
Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 4Actual: 2
Sporting Gijon: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score1.08

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.19

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.4%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.