Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 41

Burgos–Levante

2–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'BurgosFer Niño (assist: Iñigo Córdoba)
21'LevanteJ. Morales (assist: Dela)
35'BurgosFer Niño (assist: David González)
85'LevanteR. Brugue (assist: J. Morales)
90+7'LevanteC. Alvarez (assist: Carlos Espí)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Levante
8	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
321	Passes	462
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.11 · Levante 1.10. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Burgos 8 · Levante 15; on target 4 and 7.
Levante kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Miguel Sesma→

4.80

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.3%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.93 for Burgos, 1.44 for Levante.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (X2 — draw or Levante win).
These values were computed from 1,365 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win23.1%

Draw28.6%

Levante to win48.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Burgos lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time50.0%

Levante lead at half-time29.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level70.9%

12 — not level at half-time50.0%

X2 — level or Levante ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1365 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 11Actual: 13
Levante: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 4
Levante: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.11

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Levante score1.10

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–112.7%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.