Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 41

Sporting Gijon–FC Cartagena

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'FC CartagenaD. Luna (assist: Óscar Clemente)
45+5'Sporting GijonCésar Gelabert (assist: G. Campos)
59'Sporting GijonG. Campos (assist: Diego Sánchez)
63'Sporting GijonNacho Martín (assist: G. Campos)
85'FC CartagenaNacho Martínez (assist: Óscar Clemente)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		FC Cartagena
25	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
68%	Possession	32%
628	Passes	296
568	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 2.06 · FC Cartagena 0.60. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Sporting Gijon 25 · FC Cartagena 9; on target 8 and 6.
Sporting Gijon kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Manuel Orellana→

5.37

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.3%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for Sporting Gijon, 0.79 for FC Cartagena.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,365 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win70.3%

Draw19.1%

FC Cartagena to win10.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time41.8%

FC Cartagena lead at half-time10.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level89.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or FC Cartagena ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1365 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 13
FC Cartagena: at least 9Actual: 12

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 5Actual: 3
FC Cartagena: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score2.06

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 46% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.60

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%2–110.6%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.