Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Racing Ferrol–Cadiz

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'Racing FerrolChiki (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Cadiz
11	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
348	Passes	442
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 0.96 · Cadiz 1.21. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Racing Ferrol 11 · Cadiz 9; on target 3 and 1.
Cadiz kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Andrés Fuentes→

5.16

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Cadiz to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Racing Ferrol, 1.21 for Cadiz.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (X2 — draw or Cadiz win).
These values were computed from 1,359 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win29.5%

Draw30.9%

Cadiz to win39.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time14.7%

Level at half-time47.7%

Cadiz lead at half-time37.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level62.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Cadiz ahead85.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1359 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 13Actual: 14
Cadiz: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 5Actual: 4
Cadiz: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.96

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cadiz score1.21

Attack: Cadiz score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–112.4%0–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.