Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

FC Cartagena–Tenerife

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'TenerifeA. Landázuri · red card
41'FC CartagenaÁlex Millán (assist: M. Aguirregabiria)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Tenerife
9	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
473	Passes	452
405	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.85 · Tenerife 1.30. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Cartagena 9 · Tenerife 14; on target 1 and 1.

Referee

Álvaro Moreno→

4.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Tenerife to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for FC Cartagena, 1.55 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (X2 — draw or Tenerife win).
These values were computed from 1,356 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win24.6%

Draw27.3%

Tenerife to win48.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Cartagena lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time49.5%

Tenerife lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time50.5%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1356 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 11Actual: 9
Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 4Actual: 2
Tenerife: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.85

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score1.30

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 46% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%0–110.6%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.