Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Huesca–Elche

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Alcoraz, Huesca

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'ElcheÁlvaro Núñez
58'ElcheGermán Valera · red card
79'HuescaD. Gonzalez (assist: P. Soko)
90+3'HuescaJoaquín Muñoz (assist: D. Gonzalez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huesca		Elche
16	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	0
4	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
386	Passes	399
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huesca 0.97 · Elche 1.13. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Huesca 16 · Elche 9; on target 7 and 3.

Referee

Germán Cid→

4.40

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Elche to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Huesca, 1.26 for Elche.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (X2 — draw or Elche win).
These values were computed from 1,356 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huesca to win30.0%

Draw30.1%

Elche to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Huesca win or draw60.1%

12 — any result other than a draw69.9%

X2 — draw or Elche win70.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Huesca lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time48.5%

Elche lead at half-time20.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Huesca ahead or level80.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.5%

X2 — level or Elche ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1356 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huesca: at least 13Actual: 17
Elche: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Huesca: at least 4
Elche: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 39.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huesca score0.97

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Elche score1.13

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–111.6%0–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1356 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 81 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.