Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Eibar–Burgos

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'EibarJosé Corpas (penalty)
88'BurgosGrego · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Burgos
9	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
437	Passes	469
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.33 · Burgos 0.79. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Eibar 9 · Burgos 5; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

Miguel González→

4.56

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.5%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Eibar, 0.83 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — Eibar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,354 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win48.5%

Draw29.7%

Burgos to win21.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Eibar lead at half-time39.5%

Level at half-time47.4%

Burgos lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead60.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1354 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 12Actual: 20
Burgos: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Eibar: at least 4Actual: 3
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.33

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score0.79

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eibar's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.6%1–114.6%0–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.