Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 40

Deportivo La Coruna–Granada CF

2–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 May 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Granada CFA. Rebbach (assist: Gonzalo Villar)
28'Granada CFG. Tsitaishvili (assist: Manu Lama)
71'Deportivo La CorunaBarbero
72'Granada CFM. Trigueros
90+1'Deportivo La CorunaY. Hernandez (penalty)
90+7'Deportivo La CorunaBarbero · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Granada CF
10	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
390	Passes	474
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.49 · Granada CF 1.11. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 10 · Granada CF 13; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

Rafael Sánchez→

4.31

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “Deportivo La Coruna to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.44 for Granada CF.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,354 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win31.9%

Draw27.8%

Granada CF to win40.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time28.3%

Level at half-time46.2%

Granada CF lead at half-time25.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level74.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Granada CF ahead71.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1354 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 14
Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 3
Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.49

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Granada CF score1.11

Attack: Granada CF score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.6%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.