Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 39

Granada CF–Eibar

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 12 May 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

61'EibarJosé Corpas (assist: A. Puertas)
68'EibarJon Guruzeta (assist: A. Puertas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Eibar
16	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
505	Passes	405
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.49 · Eibar 0.93. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Granada CF 16 · Eibar 17; on target 3 and 7.
Granada CF kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Marta Huerta→

4.75

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Granada CF, 0.83 for Eibar.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,352 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win49.8%

Draw29.2%

Eibar to win21.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Granada CF lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time47.2%

Eibar lead at half-time21.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level78.5%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Eibar ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1352 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 11Actual: 10
Eibar: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 7
Eibar: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.49

Attack: Granada CF score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Eibar's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eibar score0.93

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.5%1–114.4%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.