Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 39

Tenerife–Racing Ferrol

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz, Tenerife

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tenerife		Racing Ferrol
11	Shots	3
2	Shots on target	0
6	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
484	Passes	283
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tenerife 1.47 · Racing Ferrol 0.67. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Tenerife 11 · Racing Ferrol 3; on target 2 and 0.
Tenerife kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Sergiu Muresan→

4.84

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “Tenerife to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Tenerife, 0.71 for Racing Ferrol.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (1X — Tenerife win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,351 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tenerife to win62.1%

Draw24.3%

Racing Ferrol to win13.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	14

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Tenerife win or draw86.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Racing Ferrol win37.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Tenerife lead at half-time43.2%

Level at half-time46.6%

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time10.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Tenerife ahead or level89.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Racing Ferrol ahead56.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1351 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tenerife: at least 14Actual: 18
Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Tenerife: at least 4
Racing Ferrol: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals44.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 39.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tenerife score1.47

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.67

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.5%2–013.5%1–112.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1351 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 80 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.