Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 39

Racing Santander–Oviedo

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'OviedoDani Calvo (assist: Santi Cazorla)
71'Racing SantanderMario Garcia

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Oviedo
15	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
379	Passes	307
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.46 · Oviedo 1.10. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Racing Santander 15 · Oviedo 7; on target 3 and 3.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Jon González→

4.55

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.3%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “Oviedo to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Racing Santander, 1.19 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,348 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win42.3%

Draw27.9%

Oviedo to win29.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Racing Santander lead at half-time42.5%

Level at half-time44.1%

Oviedo lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead57.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1348 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 18
Oviedo: at least 14Actual: 16

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 7
Oviedo: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.46

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score1.10

Attack: Oviedo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.8%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.