Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Deportivo La Coruna–Albacete

5–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Deportivo La CorunaY. Hernandez (assist: J. Jurado)
30'AlbaceteJaime Sánchez (own goal)
34'Deportivo La CorunaY. Hernandez (penalty)
46'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri (assist: Mario Soriano)
62'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri (assist: Y. Hernandez)
75'Deportivo La Coruna

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Albacete
20	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	6
0	Offsides	4
56%	Possession	44%
507	Passes	394
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.60 · Albacete 1.00. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 20 · Albacete 12; on target 9 and 3.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Andrés Fuentes→

5.22

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.15 for Albacete.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,340 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win50.7%

Draw25.5%

Albacete to win23.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time45.5%

Albacete lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Albacete ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1340 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 5
Albacete: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 5Actual: 6
Albacete: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.60

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Albacete score1.00

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.7%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.