Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 38

Levante–Tenerife

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 May 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'TenerifeA. Cantero (assist: Waldo Rubio)
90+5'LevanteR. Brugue (assist: C. Alvarez)
90+7'TenerifeFabio González · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Tenerife
13	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	1
0	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
407	Passes	319
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.53 · Tenerife 0.82. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Levante 13 · Tenerife 8; on target 2 and 2.
Levante kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Miguel González→

4.47

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.1%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Levante, 0.90 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Levante win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,336 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win55.1%

Draw26.0%

Tenerife to win18.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Levante lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time48.9%

Tenerife lead at half-time12.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level87.1%

12 — not level at half-time51.1%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1336 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 11Actual: 12
Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Levante: at least 5Actual: 3
Tenerife: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.53

Attack: Levante score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score0.82

Attack: Tenerife score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–012.2%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.