Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 37

Albacete–FC Cartagena

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'AlbacetePedro Alcalá (own goal)
15'FC CartagenaÁlex Millán (assist: R. Núñez)
49'AlbaceteChristian Kofane (assist: Jon Morcillo)
90+4'AlbaceteJavi Martón

Match statistics

Match statistics
Albacete		FC Cartagena
20	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
440	Passes	391
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Albacete 2.06 · FC Cartagena 0.61. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Albacete 20 · FC Cartagena 6; on target 9 and 1.

Referee

Sergiu Muresan→

5.00

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.5%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.24 for Albacete, 0.85 for FC Cartagena.
The highest double chance value is 88.6% (1X — Albacete win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,321 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Albacete to win69.5%

Draw19.1%

FC Cartagena to win11.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Albacete lead at half-time57.7%

Level at half-time37.2%

FC Cartagena lead at half-time5.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Albacete ahead or level94.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.8%

X2 — level or FC Cartagena ahead42.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1321 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Albacete: at least 10Actual: 9
FC Cartagena: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Albacete: at least 4Actual: 11
FC Cartagena: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Albacete score2.06

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.61

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%2–110.7%1–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.