Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Deportivo La Coruna–Tenerife

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Tenerife
9	Shots	13
0	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
8	Corners	7
0	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
479	Passes	331
380	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.47 · Tenerife 0.90. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 9 · Tenerife 13; on target 0 and 4.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Oliver De La Fuente→

4.83

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.04 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,318 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win44.9%

Draw28.7%

Tenerife to win26.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time33.6%

Level at half-time49.3%

Tenerife lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time50.7%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead66.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1318 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 8
Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 5Actual: 8
Tenerife: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.47

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score0.90

Attack: Tenerife score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–011.4%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.