Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

FC Cartagena–Granada CF

2–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'FC CartagenaÁlex Millán (assist: D. Luna)
29'Granada CFM. Rubio
42'Granada CFL. Boyé (assist: M. Hongla)
55'Granada CFM. Trigueros (assist: Carlos Neva)
65'FC CartagenaR. Núñez (assist: D. Escriche)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Granada CF
10	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	8
7	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
51%	Possession	49%
439	Passes	418
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.77 · Granada CF 1.67. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots FC Cartagena 10 · Granada CF 17; on target 7 and 8.

Referee

Andrés Fuentes→

5.24

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.2%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.77 for FC Cartagena, 1.76 for Granada CF.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (X2 — draw or Granada CF win).
These values were computed from 1,315 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win14.5%

Draw24.3%

Granada CF to win61.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

FC Cartagena lead at half-time13.6%

Level at half-time46.4%

Granada CF lead at half-time40.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level60.0%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Granada CF ahead86.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1315 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 11Actual: 18
Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 4Actual: 2
Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.77

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Granada CF score1.67

Attack: Granada CF score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–113.5%0–212.8%1–112.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.