Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Huesca–Racing Santander

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Alcoraz, Huesca

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'HuescaI. Kortajarena (assist: P. Soko)
57'HuescaMiguel Loureiro · red card
58'HuescaJorge Pulido · red card
61'Racing SantanderMario Garcia
83'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: Iñigo Vicente)
90+4'HuescaHugo Vallejo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huesca		Racing Santander
6	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	9
4	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
6	Offsides	1
28%	Possession	72%
204	Passes	533
129	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huesca 1.35 · Racing Santander 1.09. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Huesca 6 · Racing Santander 16; on target 2 and 9.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

Miguel González→

4.32

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Huesca to win”. Second comes “Racing Santander to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Huesca, 1.12 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,312 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huesca to win40.2%

Draw29.3%

Racing Santander to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

7	Yellow cards	3

3	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Huesca lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time48.3%

Racing Santander lead at half-time22.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Huesca ahead or level77.9%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1312 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huesca: at least 13Actual: 16
Racing Santander: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Huesca: at least 4Actual: 2
Racing Santander: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huesca score1.35

Attack: Huesca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.09

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–010.7%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.