Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 36

Racing Ferrol–Eldense

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'Racing FerrolÁlvaro Giménez (assist: Héber Pena)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Eldense
14	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
357	Passes	363
286	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 0.97 · Eldense 1.20. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Racing Ferrol 14 · Eldense 13; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Miguel Sesma→

4.84

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Eldense to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Racing Ferrol, 1.14 for Eldense.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (X2 — draw or Eldense win).
These values were computed from 1,311 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win30.6%

Draw31.5%

Eldense to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time23.2%

Level at half-time49.1%

Eldense lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time50.9%

X2 — level or Eldense ahead76.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1311 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 14
Eldense: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 4Actual: 1
Eldense: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.97

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eldense's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eldense score1.20

Attack: Eldense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–112.6%0–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.