Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Deportivo La Coruna–Cadiz

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

81'Deportivo La CorunaMario Soriano

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Cadiz
18	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
447	Passes	449
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.37 · Cadiz 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 18 · Cadiz 16; on target 7 and 6.

Referee

Rubén Ávalos→

5.07

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Deportivo La Coruna, 0.98 for Cadiz.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,296 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win42.9%

Draw30.2%

Cadiz to win26.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw73.1%

12 — any result other than a draw69.8%

X2 — draw or Cadiz win57.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time48.5%

Cadiz lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time51.5%

X2 — level or Cadiz ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1296 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 8
Cadiz: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 9
Cadiz: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals39.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 501 of 1,358 predictions were correct (36.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 39.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.37

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cadiz score1.03

Attack: Cadiz score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–012.7%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1296 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.