Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Malaga–Cordoba

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'CordobaJacobo González

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malaga		Cordoba
12	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	10
5	Offsides	7
45%	Possession	55%
282	Passes	355
193	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malaga 1.21 · Cordoba 1.27. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Malaga 12 · Cordoba 13; on target 2 and 4.
Cordoba kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Miguel Sesma→

4.73

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Cordoba to win”. Second comes “Malaga to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Malaga, 1.21 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,294 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malaga to win33.4%

Draw30.0%

Cordoba to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Malaga win or draw63.5%

12 — any result other than a draw70.0%

X2 — draw or Cordoba win66.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Malaga lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time47.8%

Cordoba lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Malaga ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1294 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Malaga: at least 11Actual: 16
Cordoba: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

Malaga: at least 4Actual: 5
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals42.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 39.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malaga score1.21

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.27

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–110.6%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1294 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.