Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Sporting Gijon–Tenerife

1–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (penalty)
69'TenerifeSergio González (assist: Waldo Rubio)
71'TenerifeWaldo Rubio (assist: A. Cantero)
84'TenerifeEnric Gallego (assist: Sergio González)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Tenerife
11	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	11
3	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
368	Passes	381
278	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.37 · Tenerife 0.93. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Sporting Gijon 11 · Tenerife 12; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

Carlos Muñiz→

3.31

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Sporting Gijon, 0.92 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,291 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win48.1%

Draw28.9%

Tenerife to win23.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	5

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time30.1%

Level at half-time49.5%

Tenerife lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time50.5%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead69.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1291 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 14
Tenerife: at least 12Actual: 5

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 5Actual: 6
Tenerife: at least 3Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.37

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score0.93

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–013.0%2–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.