Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Granada CF–Almeria

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Granada CFL. Boyé (penalty)
46'AlmeriaG. Melero (assist: Marc Pubill)
78'Granada CFGonzalo Villar (assist: Sergio Rodelas)
85'Granada CFM. Rubio (assist: M. Trigueros)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Almeria
17	Shots	21
8	Shots on target	8
12	Shots inside the box	13
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
288	Passes	425
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.46 · Almeria 1.21. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Granada CF 17 · Almeria 21; on target 8 and 8.
Almeria kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Saúl Ais→

5.38

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “Almeria to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Granada CF, 1.28 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win38.0%

Draw28.2%

Almeria to win33.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Granada CF lead at half-time49.3%

Level at half-time40.2%

Almeria lead at half-time10.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level89.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead50.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 13Actual: 9
Almeria: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 4
Almeria: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.46

Attack: Granada CF score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almeria score1.21

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.2%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.