Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 34

Eibar–Oviedo

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'OviedoAlemão (assist: L. Ahijado)
90+5'EibarJon Mikel (assist: Iván Gil)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Oviedo
14	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
403	Passes	295
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.28 · Oviedo 0.93. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Eibar 14 · Oviedo 9; on target 5 and 3.
Eibar kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Germán Cid→

4.30

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Eibar, 0.88 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Eibar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,288 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win40.6%

Draw32.4%

Oviedo to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	20

5	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eibar lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time44.3%

Oviedo lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1288 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 12Actual: 16
Oviedo: at least 11Actual: 20

Corners

Eibar: at least 4Actual: 7
Oviedo: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.28

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score0.93

Attack: Oviedo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–014.6%0–013.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.