Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 33

Albacete–Mirandes

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'AlbacetePablo Sáenz
45+5'MirandesM. Lachuer (penalty)
47'AlbaceteChristian Kofane (assist: Jon Morcillo)
56'MirandesJ. Panichelli (assist: M. Lachuer)
79'AlbaceteAgus Medina · red card
90+7'AlbaceteHiginio Marín

Match statistics

Match statistics
Albacete		Mirandes
10	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
235	Passes	378
150	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Albacete 1.24 · Mirandes 1.09. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Albacete 10 · Mirandes 12; on target 5 and 3.
Mirandes kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Daniel Palencia→

5.44

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “Mirandes to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for Albacete, 1.12 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,284 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Albacete to win38.3%

Draw29.8%

Mirandes to win31.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Albacete lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time47.5%

Mirandes lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Albacete ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1284 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Albacete: at least 11Actual: 16
Mirandes: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Albacete: at least 4Actual: 5
Mirandes: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Albacete score1.24

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score1.09

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.8%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.