Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Deportivo La Coruna–FC Cartagena

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Deportivo La CorunaXimo Navarro · red card
59'FC CartagenaAndy Rodríguez (assist: Nacho Martínez)
69'Deportivo La CorunaDiego Villares (assist: Mario Soriano)
76'FC CartagenaSalim El Jebari
86'Deportivo La CorunaBarbero (assist: David Mella)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		FC Cartagena
10	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
518	Passes	391
463	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 2.09 · FC Cartagena 0.50. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 10 · FC Cartagena 12; on target 3 and 4.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Carlos Muñiz→

3.27

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.1%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Deportivo La Coruna, 0.59 for FC Cartagena.
The highest double chance value is 91.6% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,273 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win72.1%

Draw19.5%

FC Cartagena to win8.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time57.3%

Level at half-time37.9%

FC Cartagena lead at half-time4.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level95.2%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or FC Cartagena ahead42.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1273 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 11
FC Cartagena: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 5Actual: 2
FC Cartagena: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score2.09

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 40% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.50

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.7%1–014.2%3–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.