Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Granada CF–Oviedo

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 March 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Granada CFL. Boyé (assist: Rubén Sánchez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Oviedo
12	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
341	Passes	472
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.45 · Oviedo 0.97. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Granada CF 12 · Oviedo 10; on target 5 and 3.
Oviedo kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Dámaso Arcediano→

4.50

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Granada CF, 0.96 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,269 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win40.1%

Draw31.4%

Oviedo to win28.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Granada CF lead at half-time43.8%

Level at half-time43.3%

Oviedo lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead56.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1269 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 13Actual: 13
Oviedo: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 5
Oviedo: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.45

Attack: Granada CF score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score0.97

Attack: Oviedo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–013.2%0–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.