Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 32

Mirandes–Racing Santander

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Racing SantanderMario Garcia (assist: A. Martin)
51'MirandesUrko Izeta (assist: Juan Gutiérrez)
75'MirandesManu Hernando (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Racing Santander
16	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
382	Passes	327
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.51 · Racing Santander 1.04. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Mirandes 16 · Racing Santander 7; on target 7 and 6.
Mirandes kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

José Guzmán→

4.89

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Mirandes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Mirandes, 0.96 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Mirandes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,267 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win48.7%

Draw28.1%

Racing Santander to win23.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Mirandes lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time46.8%

Racing Santander lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1267 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 13Actual: 14
Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 6
Racing Santander: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.51

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.04

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–012.2%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.