Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Racing Santander–Tenerife

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 March 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'TenerifeA. Landázuri (assist: Waldo Rubio)
71'TenerifeCésar Álvarez · red card
79'Racing SantanderJon Karrikaburu (assist: A. Martin)
85'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: V. A. Meseguer Cavas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Tenerife
8	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
439	Passes	354
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.73 · Tenerife 0.86. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Racing Santander 8 · Tenerife 15; on target 4 and 4.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Andrés Fuentes→

5.21

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.0%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Racing Santander, 0.83 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,261 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win60.0%

Draw24.3%

Tenerife to win15.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time44.8%

Tenerife lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1261 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 11Actual: 9
Tenerife: at least 16Actual: 13

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 4
Tenerife: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.73

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score0.86

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.4%1–112.4%2–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.