Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 31

FC Cartagena–Burgos

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'BurgosÁlex Sancris (penalty)
85'BurgosB. Sanchez · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Burgos
9	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
4	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
452	Passes	412
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.80 · Burgos 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Cartagena 9 · Burgos 6; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

Rubén Ávalos→

4.89

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.6%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.78 for FC Cartagena, 1.24 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 77.8% (X2 — draw or Burgos win).
These values were computed from 1,256 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win22.2%

Draw31.3%

Burgos to win46.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	18

4	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Cartagena lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time50.0%

Burgos lead at half-time29.0%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level71.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.0%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1256 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 11Actual: 11
Burgos: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 4Actual: 2
Burgos: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.80

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score1.22

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 42% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–115.9%1–114.8%0–012.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.