Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 31

Racing Ferrol–Eibar

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Eibar
8	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
44%	Possession	56%
384	Passes	492
277	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 0.85 · Eibar 1.27. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Racing Ferrol 8 · Eibar 12; on target 1 and 4.
Eibar kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Manuel Orellana→

5.25

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.89 for Racing Ferrol, 1.21 for Eibar.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (X2 — draw or Eibar win).
These values were computed from 1,255 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win25.7%

Draw31.3%

Eibar to win43.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time17.4%

Level at half-time46.3%

Eibar lead at half-time36.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level63.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.7%

X2 — level or Eibar ahead82.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1255 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 13
Eibar: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 4Actual: 4
Eibar: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.85

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eibar's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eibar score1.27

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–114.2%0–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.