Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 30

Levante–FC Cartagena

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'LevanteIván Romero
71'LevanteG. Kochorashvili (assist: Iván Romero)
89'LevanteVicente Iborra (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		FC Cartagena
17	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
524	Passes	398
440	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 2.08 · FC Cartagena 0.48. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Levante 17 · FC Cartagena 11; on target 8 and 1.
Levante kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Germán Cid→

4.29

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.7%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for Levante, 0.60 for FC Cartagena.
The highest double chance value is 92.1% (1X — Levante win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,251 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win73.7%

Draw18.4%

FC Cartagena to win7.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 561 of 734 predictions were correct (76.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Levante lead at half-time55.1%

Level at half-time39.9%

FC Cartagena lead at half-time5.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level95.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or FC Cartagena ahead44.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1251 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 11Actual: 14
FC Cartagena: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Levante: at least 5Actual: 3
FC Cartagena: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score2.08

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.08 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.48

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.4%1–013.3%3–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.