Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 30

Tenerife–Huesca

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz, Tenerife

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'TenerifeMaikel Mesa (assist: Luismi Cruz)
90+3'TenerifeA. Martin Luis (assist: A. Cantero)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Tenerife		Huesca
19	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
4	Offsides	5
46%	Possession	54%
378	Passes	463
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Tenerife 0.95 · Huesca 0.98. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Tenerife 19 · Huesca 7; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

Iosu Galech→

5.03

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Tenerife to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Tenerife, 0.84 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (1X — Tenerife win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,249 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Tenerife to win41.2%

Draw32.8%

Huesca to win26.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Tenerife lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time51.0%

Huesca lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Tenerife ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time49.0%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1249 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Tenerife: at least 13Actual: 17
Huesca: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Tenerife: at least 4Actual: 6
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Tenerife score0.95

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Huesca concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.98

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–015.3%0–013.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.