Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 30

Sporting Gijon–Racing Santander

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Sporting GijonJonathan Dubasin (assist: Guille Rosas)
58'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: P. Rodriguez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Racing Santander
13	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
342	Passes	341
245	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.47 · Racing Santander 1.20. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sporting Gijon 13 · Racing Santander 13; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Saúl Ais→

5.43

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “Racing Santander to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Sporting Gijon, 1.22 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,246 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win40.7%

Draw28.1%

Racing Santander to win31.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time24.7%

Level at half-time47.3%

Racing Santander lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.7%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead75.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1246 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 14Actual: 16
Racing Santander: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 5Actual: 6
Racing Santander: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.47

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.20

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.6%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.