Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 30

Mirandes–Oviedo

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'MirandesJ. Panichelli (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Oviedo
13	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
244	Passes	417
150	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.23 · Oviedo 0.98. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Mirandes 13 · Oviedo 9; on target 3 and 4.
Oviedo kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Miguel Sesma→

4.71

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Mirandes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Mirandes, 0.91 for Oviedo.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (1X — Mirandes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,245 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win38.1%

Draw32.8%

Oviedo to win29.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mirandes lead at half-time41.9%

Level at half-time43.8%

Oviedo lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Oviedo ahead58.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1245 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 12Actual: 15
Oviedo: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 3
Oviedo: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.23

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oviedo score0.98

Attack: Oviedo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%1–014.1%0–013.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.