Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 30

Deportivo La Coruna–Cordoba

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 March 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'CordobaÁlex Sala (assist: Cristian Carracedo)
61'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri (assist: Y. Hernandez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Cordoba
14	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
369	Passes	356
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.55 · Cordoba 1.13. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 14 · Cordoba 12; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Miguel González→

4.18

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.07 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win47.2%

Draw27.5%

Cordoba to win25.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	22

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time38.5%

Level at half-time43.6%

Cordoba lead at half-time17.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level82.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead61.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 11
Cordoba: at least 13Actual: 22

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 4
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.55

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.13

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–010.6%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.