Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 24

Racing Ferrol–Burgos

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 March 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+5'BurgosDavid González (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Burgos
7	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	6
4	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
434	Passes	304
351	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 0.93 · Burgos 1.08. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Racing Ferrol 7 · Burgos 9; on target 3 and 3.
Racing Ferrol kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Dámaso Arcediano→

4.59

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.6%: “a draw”. Second comes “Burgos to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for Racing Ferrol, 0.91 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 67.7% (X2 — draw or Burgos win).
These values were computed from 1,242 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win32.3%

Draw34.6%

Burgos to win33.1%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

20	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time50.3%

Burgos lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time49.7%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1242 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 20
Burgos: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 4Actual: 4
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.93

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score1.08

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–016.1%1–115.5%0–114.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.