Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Levante–Mirandes

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

65'LevanteC. Alvarez (assist: Iván Romero)
90+4'MirandesAlberto Dadie · red card
90+5'LevanteDela · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Mirandes
11	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
493	Passes	399
406	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.34 · Mirandes 0.94. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Levante 11 · Mirandes 11; on target 1 and 2.
Levante kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Carlos Muñiz→

3.23

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.8%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Levante, 0.93 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Levante win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,228 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win46.8%

Draw29.3%

Mirandes to win23.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Levante lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time46.8%

Mirandes lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.2%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1228 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 12Actual: 15
Mirandes: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Levante: at least 5Actual: 5
Mirandes: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.34

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score0.94

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–013.0%0–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.