Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Granada CF–Zaragoza

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Granada CFA. Rebbach (assist: Loïc Williams)
35'Granada CFGonzalo Villar · red card
48'Granada CFG. Tsitaishvili (assist: L. Boyé)
90+2'ZaragozaA. Mari (assist: A. Aketxe)
90+4'ZaragozaP. Sans (assist: Adrian Liso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Zaragoza
8	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
242	Passes	396
181	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.52 · Zaragoza 0.88. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Granada CF 8 · Zaragoza 12; on target 3 and 4.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Germán Cid→

4.26

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.1%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Granada CF, 0.87 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 79.8% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,224 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win52.1%

Draw27.7%

Zaragoza to win20.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Granada CF lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time48.1%

Zaragoza lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time51.9%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1224 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 13
Zaragoza: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 4
Zaragoza: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.52

Attack: Granada CF score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score0.88

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–013.4%2–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.