Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 28

Racing Ferrol–Cordoba

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 February 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

60'Racing FerrolA. Bunuel · red card
90+1'CordobaJacobo González (assist: N. Obolskiy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Cordoba
4	Shots	13
0	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
244	Passes	481
135	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 1.07 · Cordoba 1.38. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Racing Ferrol 4 · Cordoba 13; on target 0 and 6.
Cordoba kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Saúl Ais→

5.42

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Cordoba to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Racing Ferrol, 1.28 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (X2 — draw or Cordoba win).
These values were computed from 1,221 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win29.5%

Draw29.8%

Cordoba to win40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol win or draw59.3%

12 — any result other than a draw70.2%

X2 — draw or Cordoba win70.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (29.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time25.3%

Level at half-time46.4%

Cordoba lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead74.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1221 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 13
Cordoba: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 4Actual: 4
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals41.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 38.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score1.07

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.38

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–111.5%0–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1221 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 27 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.