Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 27

Almeria–Elche

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 17 February 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'ElcheJosé Salinas (assist: Germán Valera)
76'AlmeriaS. Clua · red card
85'AlmeriaArnau Puigmal (assist: Kaiky)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almeria		Elche
6	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
347	Passes	605
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almeria 1.37 · Elche 1.08. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Almeria 6 · Elche 10; on target 3 and 5.
Elche kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Jon González→

4.39

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Almeria, 1.07 for Elche.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Almeria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,219 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almeria to win48.2%

Draw27.1%

Elche to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Almeria lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time46.2%

Elche lead at half-time35.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Almeria ahead or level64.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Elche ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1219 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almeria: at least 14Actual: 12
Elche: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Almeria: at least 4Actual: 4
Elche: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almeria score1.37

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.37 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Elche score1.08

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–010.4%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.