Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 27

Racing Santander–Cadiz

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'CadizJavi Ontiveros (assist: M. Climent)
51'CadizA. Fernandez (penalty)
57'CadizC. Ramos (assist: M. Climent)
60'Racing SantanderP. Rodriguez
80'Racing SantanderJon Karrikaburu (assist: U. Vencedor)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Cadiz
11	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	9
8	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
68%	Possession	32%
442	Passes	221
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.71 · Cadiz 1.05. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Racing Santander 11 · Cadiz 16; on target 3 and 9.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Álvaro Moreno→

4.58

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Racing Santander, 0.99 for Cadiz.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,212 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win41.9%

Draw30.3%

Cadiz to win27.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Racing Santander lead at half-time34.4%

Level at half-time45.4%

Cadiz lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Cadiz ahead65.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1212 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 13Actual: 21
Cadiz: at least 15Actual: 13

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 5
Cadiz: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.71

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cadiz score1.05

Attack: Cadiz score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–012.4%0–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.