Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 27

FC Cartagena–Malaga

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'FC CartagenaD. Musto · red card
90+4'MalagaR. Baturina (assist: Jokin Gabilondo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Malaga
10	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
32%	Possession	68%
284	Passes	615
195	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.99 · Malaga 1.24. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Cartagena 10 · Malaga 14; on target 3 and 6.
Malaga kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Sergiu Muresan→

4.77

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “Malaga to win”. Second comes “FC Cartagena to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for FC Cartagena, 1.13 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 68.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,211 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win32.9%

Draw31.1%

Malaga to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Cartagena lead at half-time16.5%

Level at half-time47.8%

Malaga lead at half-time35.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level64.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead83.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1211 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 13Actual: 17
Malaga: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 4Actual: 6
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.99

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score1.24

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–111.6%1–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.