Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Oviedo–Eldense

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 10 February 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oviedo		Eldense
10	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	0
0	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
586	Passes	273
515	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oviedo 1.76 · Eldense 0.78. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Oviedo 10 · Eldense 5; on target 3 and 0.
Oviedo kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Dámaso Arcediano→

4.54

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.2%: “Oviedo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Oviedo, 0.74 for Eldense.
The highest double chance value is 83.9% (1X — Oviedo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oviedo to win57.2%

Draw26.7%

Eldense to win16.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Oviedo win or draw83.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Eldense win42.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Oviedo lead at half-time38.7%

Level at half-time44.5%

Eldense lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Oviedo ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Eldense ahead61.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oviedo: at least 11Actual: 16
Eldense: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Oviedo: at least 5
Eldense: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals40.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 38.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oviedo score1.76

Attack: Oviedo score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Eldense concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eldense score0.78

Attack: Eldense score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oviedo's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.1%1–113.2%2–012.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1208 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 67 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.