Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Deportivo La Coruna–Almeria

3–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Abanca-Riazor, La Coruña

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri (assist: J. Jurado)
26'Deportivo La CorunaY. Hernandez (assist: Rafael Obrador)
31'Deportivo La CorunaDavid Mella (assist: Ximo Navarro)
90+3'AlmeriaL. Suárez (assist: G. Melero)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Almeria
11	Shots	22
6	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	11
7	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	8
2	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
413	Passes	454
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.38 · Almeria 1.36. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 11 · Almeria 22; on target 6 and 8.

Referee

Miguel Sesma→

4.70

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “Deportivo La Coruna to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.42 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,206 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win34.1%

Draw27.6%

Almeria to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time38.7%

Level at half-time44.1%

Almeria lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead61.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1206 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 8
Almeria: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 3
Almeria: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.38

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almeria score1.36

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.4%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.