Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Burgos–Racing Santander

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Racing SantanderJavi Castro
72'BurgosÁlex Sancris (assist: Fer Niño)
77'BurgosFer Niño (assist: Iñigo Córdoba)
86'Racing SantanderIñigo Vicente · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Racing Santander
10	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
425	Passes	446
332	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.18 · Racing Santander 1.18. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Burgos 10 · Racing Santander 7; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

Manuel Orellana→

5.12

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.8%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “Racing Santander to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Burgos, 1.13 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,204 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win38.8%

Draw29.6%

Racing Santander to win31.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	14

6	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Burgos lead at half-time16.4%

Level at half-time47.8%

Racing Santander lead at half-time35.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level64.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead83.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1204 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 13Actual: 21
Racing Santander: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Burgos: at least 5Actual: 3
Racing Santander: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.18

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.18

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–010.7%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.