Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Elche–Tenerife

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'ElcheS. Kaba (penalty)
90+3'ElcheA. Boayar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Elche		Tenerife
7	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	5
60%	Possession	40%
451	Passes	293
379	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Elche 1.53 · Tenerife 0.62. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Elche 7 · Tenerife 11; on target 3 and 2.
Elche kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Miguel González→

4.23

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Elche to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Elche, 0.67 for Tenerife.
The highest double chance value is 83.8% (1X — Elche win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,203 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Elche to win55.2%

Draw28.7%

Tenerife to win16.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Elche lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time51.0%

Tenerife lead at half-time16.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Elche ahead or level83.5%

12 — not level at half-time49.0%

X2 — level or Tenerife ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1203 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Elche: at least 11Actual: 18
Tenerife: at least 15Actual: 19

Corners

Elche: at least 5Actual: 3
Tenerife: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Elche score1.53

Attack: Elche score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Tenerife's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Tenerife score0.62

Attack: Tenerife score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Elche concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–017.3%1–113.5%2–012.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.