Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Racing Ferrol–Castellón

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 February 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de A Malata, Ferrol

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'CastellónNaldo (own goal)
14'CastellónRaúl Sánchez (assist: G. Zarfino)
58'CastellónG. Zarfino · red card
68'Racing FerrolJosep Señé (penalty)
78'CastellónT. van den Belt (assist: De Miguel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Ferrol		Castellón
12	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	3
5	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
449	Passes	336
357	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Ferrol 1.13 · Castellón 1.31. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Racing Ferrol 12 · Castellón 10; on target 2 and 5.
Racing Ferrol kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Oliver De La Fuente→

4.87

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “Racing Ferrol to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Racing Ferrol, 1.35 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,199 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Ferrol to win29.4%

Draw29.1%

Castellón to win41.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time47.5%

Castellón lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Ferrol ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1199 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 10
Castellón: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Racing Ferrol: at least 4Actual: 6
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Ferrol score1.13

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Castellón concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.31

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–110.8%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.