Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 25

Levante–Racing Ferrol

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 3 February 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 14%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Racing FerrolJ. Dorrio

Match statistics

Match statistics
Levante		Racing Ferrol
22	Shots	6
8	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
11	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
587	Passes	264
497	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Levante 1.72 · Racing Ferrol 0.67. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Levante 22 · Racing Ferrol 6; on target 8 and 3.
Levante kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Álvaro Moreno→

4.63

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “Levante to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for Levante, 0.79 for Racing Ferrol.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (1X — Levante win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,197 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Levante to win62.3%

Draw23.5%

Racing Ferrol to win14.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Levante win or draw85.8%

12 — any result other than a draw76.5%

X2 — draw or Racing Ferrol win37.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Levante lead at half-time47.4%

Level at half-time44.3%

Racing Ferrol lead at half-time8.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Levante ahead or level91.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Racing Ferrol ahead52.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1197 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Levante: at least 12Actual: 9
Racing Ferrol: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Levante: at least 4Actual: 11
Racing Ferrol: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 38.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Levante score1.72

Attack: Levante score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Ferrol's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Ferrol score0.67

Attack: Racing Ferrol score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Levante's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.8%2–012.6%1–111.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1197 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 65 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.