Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 25

FC Cartagena–Cordoba

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'CordobaIsma Ruiz (assist: Cristian Carracedo)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Cordoba
8	Shots	19
1	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	6
7	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
278	Passes	491
186	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.95 · Cordoba 1.46. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Cartagena 8 · Cordoba 19; on target 1 and 5.
Cordoba kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Andrés Fuentes→

5.28

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Cordoba to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for FC Cartagena, 1.45 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 79.7% (X2 — draw or Cordoba win).
These values were computed from 1,194 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win20.3%

Draw28.5%

Cordoba to win51.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — FC Cartagena win or draw48.8%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or Cordoba win79.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Cartagena lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time47.5%

Cordoba lead at half-time28.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level71.3%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1194 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 10Actual: 12
Cordoba: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 3Actual: 8
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals40.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 38.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.95

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (37% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.46

Attack: Cordoba score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–114.1%0–210.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1194 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 24 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.