Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 25

Castellón–Huesca

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 February 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'HuescaMiguel Loureiro (assist: Ignasi Vilarrasa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Huesca
17	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
2	Offsides	3
74%	Possession	26%
539	Passes	189
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 1.33 · Huesca 1.04. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Castellón 17 · Huesca 8; on target 2 and 2.
Castellón kept the ball more (74%).

Referee

Marta Huerta→

5.22

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Castellón, 1.00 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,192 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win45.6%

Draw28.9%

Huesca to win25.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Castellón win or draw74.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.1%

X2 — draw or Huesca win54.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Castellón lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time47.4%

Huesca lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1192 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 11Actual: 10
Huesca: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Castellón: at least 6Actual: 7
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 38.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score1.33

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Huesca concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score1.04

Attack: Huesca score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–011.9%2–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1192 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 24 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.